Izindaba Zemboni: Ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kuthatha indawo ephambili

Izinguquko embonini ye-semiconductor ziyashesha, futhi ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe akuseyona nje into ecatshangelwa kamuva. Umhlaziyi odumile uLu Xingzhi uthe uma izinqubo ezithuthukisiwe ziyisikhungo samandla sesikhathi se-silicon, khona-ke ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kuba yinqaba emngceleni wombuso wezobuchwepheshe olandelayo.

Ku-post ku-Facebook, uLu waveza ukuthi eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, le ndlela yayingaqondwa kahle futhi yayinganakwa. Kodwa-ke, namuhla, ishintshe buthule isuka "kuHlelo B olungeyona i-mainstream" yaba "i-mainstream track Plan A."

Ukuvela kokupakisha okuthuthukile njengenqaba yasemngceleni wombuso olandelayo wezobuchwepheshe akuyona into eyenzeka ngengozi; kuwumphumela ongenakugwenywa wamandla amathathu aqhubayo.

Amandla okuqala ashukumisayo ukukhula okukhulu kwamandla okusebenzisa ikhompyutha, kodwa intuthuko ezinqubweni iye yehla. Ama-chip kumele anqunywe, abekwe ndawonye, ​​futhi alungiswe kabusha. ULu uthe ukuthi nje ukuthi ungafinyelela i-5nm akusho ukuthi ungangena ngamandla okusebenzisa ikhompyutha ngokuphindwe ka-20. Imikhawulo yama-photomasks ikhawulela indawo yama-chip, futhi ama-Chiplets kuphela angadlula lesi sivimbelo, njengoba kubonakala nge-Blackwell kaNvidia.

Amandla esibili ashukumisayo izinhlelo zokusebenza ezahlukahlukene; ama-chip awasafanelani nosayizi owodwa. Ukwakheka kohlelo kuya ekuguqulweni kwe-modular. ULu waphawula ukuthi isikhathi sokuphatha i-chip eyodwa zonke izinhlelo zokusebenza sesiphelile. Ukuqeqeshwa kwe-AI, ukwenza izinqumo ngokuzimela, ukubala okusemaphethelweni, amadivayisi e-AR—uhlelo ngalunye ludinga inhlanganisela ehlukene ye-silicon. Ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe okuhlanganiswe ne-Chiplets kunikeza ikhambi elilinganiselayo lokuguquguquka nokusebenza kahle komklamo.

Amandla esithathu ashukumisayo izindleko ezikhuphukayo zokuthuthwa kwedatha, lapho ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kuba yimbangela eyinhloko. Kuma-chip e-AI, amandla asetshenziswayo ekudlulisweni kwedatha avame ukwedlula lawo okusetshenziswa ekubaleni. Ibanga ekupakisheni okuvamile seliyisikhubekiso ekusebenzeni. Ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kubhala kabusha lo mqondo: ukuletha idatha eduze kwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuya phambili.

Ukupakisha Okuthuthukisiwe: Ukukhula Okumangalisayo

Ngokusho kombiko okhishwe yinkampani yokubonisana i-Yole Group ngoJulayi ngonyaka odlule, oqhutshwa yimikhuba ye-HPC kanye ne-AI ekhiqizayo, imboni yokupakisha ethuthukisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe (i-CAGR) elingu-12.9% eminyakeni eyisithupha ezayo. Ngokukhethekile, imali engenayo iyonke yemboni kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule isuka ku-$39.2 billion ngo-2023 iye ku-$81.1 billion ngo-2029 (cishe ama-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingu-589.73).

Izinkampani ezinkulu zezimboni, okuhlanganisa i-TSMC, i-Intel, i-Samsung, i-ASE, i-Amkor, kanye ne-JCET, zitshala imali eningi kumthamo wokupakisha osezingeni eliphezulu, kanti kulinganiselwa ukuthi zizotshala imali engaba yizigidigidi zamaRandi eziyi-11.5 emabhizinisini azo okupakisha asezingeni eliphezulu ngo-2024.

Igagasi lobuhlakani bokwenziwa ngokungangabazeki liletha umfutho omusha oqinile embonini yokupakisha ethuthukisiwe. Ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bokupakisha obuthuthukisiwe kungasekela nokukhula kwezinkambu ezahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ama-elekthronikhi abathengi, ukubala okusebenzayo kakhulu, ukugcinwa kwedatha, ama-elekthronikhi ezimoto, kanye nokuxhumana.

Ngokwezibalo zenkampani, imali engenayo evela ekupakisheni okuthuthukisiwe kwikota yokuqala ka-2024 ifinyelele ku-$10.2 billion (cishe ama-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingama-74.17), okubonisa ukwehla okungu-8.1% kwikota ngekota, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezici zesizini. Kodwa-ke, lesi sibalo sisaphakeme kunesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2023. Kwikota yesibili ka-2024, imali engenayo ekupakisheni okuthuthukisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke ngo-4.6%, ifinyelele ku-$10.7 billion (cishe ama-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingama-77.81).