Isidingo esihlukahlukene kanye nomkhiqizo wokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe ezimakethe ezahlukene kuqhuba usayizi wemakethe yayo kusuka ku-$38 billion kuya ku-$79 billion ngo-2030. Lokhu kukhula kukhuthazwa yizidingo nezinselelo ezahlukahlukene, kodwa kugcina ukuthambekela okuqhubekayo okukhuphukayo. Lokhu kuguquguquka kuvumela ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe ukuthi kuqhubeke nokusungula izinto ezintsha kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo, kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo ezithile zezimakethe ezahlukene ngokwemiphumela, izidingo zobuchwepheshe, kanye namanani okuthengisa ajwayelekile.
Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuguquguquka kubeka nezingozi embonini yokupakisha ethuthukisiwe lapho izimakethe ezithile zibhekene nokwehla noma ukuguquguquka. Ngo-2024, ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kuzuza ekukhuleni okusheshayo kwemakethe yesikhungo sedatha, kuyilapho ukubuyiselwa kwezimakethe ezinkulu njengeselula kuhamba kancane.
Uchungechunge lokuphakelwa oluthuthukisiwe lungenye yemikhakha engaphansi enamandla kakhulu ngaphakathi kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwe-semiconductor lomhlaba wonke. Lokhu kubangelwa ukubandakanyeka kwamamodeli ebhizinisi ahlukahlukene ngale kwe-OSAT yendabuko (i-Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), ukubaluleka kwezepolitiki kwesu lomkhakha, kanye nendima yawo ebalulekile emikhiqizweni esebenza kahle kakhulu.
Unyaka ngamunye uletha imikhawulo yawo eshintsha isimo se-packaging supply chain ethuthukisiwe. Ngo-2024, izici eziningana ezibalulekile zithonya lolu shintsho: ukulinganiselwa kwamandla, izinselelo zesivuno, izinto zokwakha kanye nemishini emisha, izidingo zokusetshenziswa kwemali, imithethonqubo yezepolitiki kanye nezinhlelo, isidingo esikhulu ezimakethe ezithile, amazinga aguqukayo, abaqalayo abasha, kanye nokushintshashintsha kwezinto zokwakha.
Kuvele izivumelwano eziningi ezintsha ukuze kuxazululwe izinselelo zochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngokubambisana nangokushesha. Ubuchwepheshe obuphambili bokupakisha bunikezwa abanye abahlanganyeli ilayisense ukusekela ukushintshela okushelelayo kumamodeli amasha ebhizinisi nokubhekana nemikhawulo yamandla. Ukulungiswa kwama-chip kugcizelelwa kakhulu ukukhuthaza izinhlelo zokusebenza ezibanzi zama-chip, ukuhlola izimakethe ezintsha, nokunciphisa imithwalo yokutshalwa kwezimali komuntu ngamunye. Ngo-2024, amazwe amasha, izinkampani, izikhungo, kanye nemigqa yokuhlola iqala ukuzibophezela ekupakisheni okuthuthukile—umkhuba ozoqhubeka kuze kube ngu-2025.
Ukupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe akukafiki ekugcwalisweni kobuchwepheshe. Phakathi kuka-2024 no-2025, ukupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe kufinyelela empumelelweni eqopha umlando, futhi iphothifoliyo yobuchwepheshe iyakhula ukuze ifake izinguqulo ezintsha eziqinile zobuchwepheshe be-AP namapulatifomu akhona, njenge-EMIB ne-Foveros yesizukulwane sakamuva se-Intel. Ukupakishwa kwezinhlelo ze-CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) nakho kuthola ukunakwa embonini, ngobuchwepheshe obusha obuthuthukiswayo ukuheha amakhasimende nokwandisa umkhiqizo.
Izisekelo zesekethe ezihlanganisiwe ezithuthukisiwe zimelela enye imboni ehlobene eduze, yabelana ngamamephu emigwaqo, izimiso zokuklama ngokubambisana, kanye nezidingo zamathuluzi ngokupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe.
Ngaphezu kwalezi zobuchwepheshe eziyinhloko, ubuchwepheshe obuningana "obungabonakali be-powerhouse" buqhuba ukuhlukahluka kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha zokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe: izixazululo zokulethwa kwamandla, ubuchwepheshe bokushumeka, ukuphathwa kokushisa, izinto ezintsha (njengengilazi kanye nezinto eziphilayo zesizukulwane esilandelayo), ukuxhumana okuthuthukisiwe, kanye nefomethi yemishini/amathuluzi amasha. Kusukela kuma-elekthronikhi eselula nabathengi kuya kubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nezikhungo zedatha, ukupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kulungisa ubuchwepheshe bayo ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zemakethe ngayinye, okuvumela imikhiqizo yayo yesizukulwane esilandelayo ukuthi ihlangabezane nezidingo zemakethe.
Imakethe yokupakisha ephezulu kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$8 billion ngo-2024, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi idlule ku-$28 billion ngo-2030, okubonisa izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe (i-CAGR) elingu-23% kusukela ngo-2024 kuya ku-2030. Ngokuphathelene nezimakethe zokugcina, imakethe yokupakisha ephezulu kakhulu "yezokuxhumana nengqalasizinda," ekhiqize imali engenayo engaphezu kuka-67% ngo-2024. Okulandelayo eduze "imakethe yeselula neyabathengi," okuyimakethe ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu ene-CAGR engu-50%.
Ngokuphathelene namayunithi okupakisha, ukupakisha okuphezulu kulindeleke ukuthi kubone i-CAGR engu-33% kusukela ngo-2024 kuya ku-2030, kukhuphuke kusuka kumayunithi angaba yizigidigidi eziyi-1 ngo-2024 kuya kumayunithi angaphezu kwezigidigidi ezi-5 ngo-2030. Lokhu kukhula okuphawulekayo kungenxa yesidingo esinempilo sokupakisha okuphezulu, futhi intengo yokuthengisa emaphakathi iphakeme kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nokupakisha okungathuthuki kakhulu, okuqhutshwa ukushintsha kwenani kusuka ekugcineni kwangaphambili kuya ekugcineni kwangemuva ngenxa yamapulatifomu e-2.5D kanye ne-3D.
Imemori ehlanganisiwe ye-3D (i-HBM, i-3DS, i-3D NAND, kanye ne-CBA DRAM) iyona enegalelo elikhulu, okulindeleke ukuthi ifake isabelo semakethe esingaphezu kuka-70% ngo-2029. Amapulatifomu akhula ngokushesha afaka i-CBA DRAM, i-3D SoC, ama-interposers e-Si asebenzayo, ama-stacks e-3D NAND, kanye namabhuloho e-Si ahlanganisiwe.
Izithiyo zokungena eketangeni lokuphakelwa kwamaphakheji eliphezulu ziya ngokuya ziphakama, lapho izikhungo ezinkulu zokufaka ama-wafer kanye nama-IDM ephazamisa insimu yokupakisha ethuthukisiwe ngamakhono azo angaphambili. Ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe bokubopha obuhlanganisiwe kwenza isimo sibe nzima kakhulu kubathengisi be-OSAT, njengoba yilabo kuphela abanamakhono e-wafer fab kanye nezinsiza ezanele abangamelana nokulahlekelwa okukhulu kwesivuno kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu.
Ngo-2024, abakhiqizi bememori abamelelwe yiYangtze Memory Technologies, iSamsung, iSK Hynix, kanye neMicron bazobusa, bephethe u-54% wemakethe yokupakisha ephezulu, njengoba imemori ehlanganisiwe ye-3D idlula amanye amapulatifomu ngokwemali engenayo, umkhiqizo weyunithi, kanye nesivuno se-wafer. Eqinisweni, inani lokuthenga lokupakisha imemori lidlula kakhulu elokupakisha okunengqondo. I-TSMC ihola phambili ngesabelo semakethe esingu-35%, ilandelwa eduze yiYangtze Memory Technologies enama-20% emakethe yonke. Abasanda kungena njengeKioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, kanye neSamsung kulindeleke ukuthi bangene emakethe ye-3D NAND ngokushesha, bathathe isabelo semakethe. I-Samsung isendaweni yesithathu ngesabelo esingu-16%, ilandelwe yi-SK Hynix (13%) kanye ne-Micron (5%). Njengoba imemori ehlanganisiwe ye-3D iqhubeka nokukhula futhi kuqaliswa imikhiqizo emisha, amasheya emakethe alaba bakhiqizi kulindeleke ukuthi akhule kahle. I-Intel ilandela eduze ngesabelo esingu-6%.
Abakhiqizi abaphezulu be-OSAT njenge-Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), i-Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), i-JCET, i-Amkor, kanye ne-TF basaqhubeka nokuzibandakanya emisebenzini yokugcina yokupakisha nokuhlola. Bazama ukuthola isabelo semakethe ngezixazululo zokupakisha eziphezulu ezisekelwe ku-ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) kanye ne-mold interposer. Esinye isici esibalulekile ukusebenzisana kwabo nezinkampani ezisungula izinto eziholayo kanye nabakhiqizi bamadivayisi ahlanganisiwe (IDM) ukuqinisekisa ukuhlanganyela kule misebenzi.
Namuhla, ukuqashelwa kokupakisha okuphezulu kuncike kakhulu kubuchwepheshe be-front-end (FE), kanye nokubopha okuhlanganisiwe okuvela njengomkhuba omusha. I-BESI, ngokubambisana kwayo ne-AMAT, idlala indima ebalulekile kulo mkhuba omusha, ihlinzeka ngemishini kuma-giants afana ne-TSMC, i-Intel, ne-Samsung, wonke aphikisana ngokubusa emakethe. Abanye abahlinzeki bemishini, njenge-ASMPT, i-EVG, i-SET, ne-Suiss MicroTech, kanye ne-Shibaura ne-TEL, nabo bayizingxenye ezibalulekile zochungechunge lokuhlinzeka.
Umkhuba omkhulu wobuchwepheshe kuzo zonke izinkundla zokupakisha ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, kungakhathaliseki uhlobo, ukunciphisa iphimbo lokuxhumana—umkhuba ohlotshaniswa nama-vias e-through-silicon (TSVs), ama-TMV, ama-microbumps, ngisho nokubopha okuhlanganisiwe, okwakamuva okuvele njengesixazululo esibaluleke kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-diameter kanye nobukhulu be-wafer kulindeleke ukuthi bunciphe.
Lokhu kuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kubalulekile ekuhlanganiseni ama-chip nama-chipset ayinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ukusekela ukucutshungulwa kwedatha okusheshayo kanye nokudluliswa kwayo ngenkathi kuqinisekiswa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kanye nokulahlekelwa okuphansi, ekugcineni kuvumela ukuhlanganiswa okuphezulu kobuningi kanye ne-bandwidth yezizukulwane zemikhiqizo zesikhathi esizayo.
I-3D SoC hybrid bonding ibonakala iyinsika yobuchwepheshe eyinhloko yokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe kwesizukulwane esilandelayo, njengoba ivumela ama-pitch amancane okuxhumanisa ngenkathi ikhulisa indawo yonke yobuso be-SoC. Lokhu kwenza kube nokwenzeka njengokuqongelela ama-chipset kusuka ku-SoC die ehlukanisiwe, ngaleyo ndlela kuvumela ukupakishwa okuhlanganisiwe okungafani. I-TSMC, ngobuchwepheshe bayo be-3D Fabric, isibe ngumholi ekupakisheni kwe-3D SoIC kusetshenziswa ukubophela okuhlanganisiwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlanganiswa kwe-chip-to-wafer kulindeleke ukuthi kuqale ngenani elincane lama-DRAM stacks e-HBM4E angu-16-layer.
I-Chipset kanye nokuhlanganiswa okuhlukahlukene kungenye indlela ebalulekile eqhuba ukwamukelwa kwamaphakheji e-HEP, ngemikhiqizo etholakala emakethe okwamanje esebenzisa le ndlela. Isibonelo, i-Intel's Sapphire Rapids isebenzisa i-EMIB, i-Ponte Vecchio isebenzisa i-Co-EMIB, kanti i-Meteor Lake isebenzisa i-Foveros. I-AMD ingenye umthengisi omkhulu owamukele le ndlela yobuchwepheshe emikhiqizweni yayo, njengeprosesa yayo yesizukulwane sesithathu se-Ryzen kanye ne-EPYC, kanye nokwakhiwa kwe-chipset ye-3D ku-MI300.
I-Nvidia kulindeleke futhi ukuthi isebenzise lo mklamo we-chipset ochungechungeni lwayo lwe-Blackwell lwesizukulwane esilandelayo. Njengoba abathengisi abakhulu njenge-Intel, i-AMD, ne-Nvidia sebevele bememezele, amaphakheji amaningi afaka phakathi i-die ehlukanisiwe noma ephindaphindiwe kulindeleke ukuthi atholakale ngonyaka ozayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, le ndlela kulindeleke ukuthi isetshenziswe ezinhlelweni zokusebenza ze-ADAS ezisezingeni eliphezulu eminyakeni ezayo.
Umkhuba ojwayelekile ukuhlanganisa amapulatifomu e-2.5D kanye ne-3D engeziwe kuphakheji efanayo, abanye embonini asebevele beyibiza ngokuthi ukupakisha kwe-3.5D. Ngakho-ke, silindele ukubona ukuvela kwamaphakheji ahlanganisa ama-chip e-3D SoC, ama-interposer e-2.5D, amabhuloho e-silicon ahlanganisiwe, kanye nama-optics ahlanganisiwe. Amapulatifomu amasha okupakisha e-2.5D kanye ne-3D aseseduze, okwandisa ubunzima bokupakisha kwe-HEP.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Agasti-11-2025