Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwe-AI Kuyanda: Ukuthengiswa Kwemishini Yokukhiqiza Ye-Semiconductor (Chip) Yomhlaba Wonke Kulindeleke Kufinyelele Eqophelweni Eliphezulu Ngo-2025.
Ngokutshalwa kwezimali okunamandla kubuhlakani bokwenziwa, ukuthengiswa kwemishini yokukhiqiza i-semiconductor (chip) yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu ngo-2025. Ukuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokukhula futhi kubeke amarekhodi amasha eminyakeni emibili ezayo (2026-2027).
Ngomhlaka-16 Disemba, i-Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) ikhiphe umbiko wayo wokubikezela imakethe yemishini yama-chip emhlabeni wonke ku-SEMICON Japan 2025. Lo mbiko ubikezela ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2025, ukuthengiswa kwemishini yama-chip emhlabeni wonke (imikhiqizo emisha) kuzokwanda ngo-13.7% unyaka nonyaka, kufinyelele phezulu ngama-US$133 billion. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokukhula eminyakeni emibili ezayo, kufinyelele ama-US$145 billion ngo-2026 kanye nama-US$156 billion ngo-2027, kuqhubeka nokuphula amarekhodi omlando.
I-SEMI iveza ukuthi imbangela eyinhloko yokukhula okuqhubekayo ekuthengisweni kwemishini yama-chip ivela ekutshalweni kwezimali kubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe bokucabanga, inkumbulo, kanye nokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe okuhlobene nobuhlakani bokwenziwa.
Isikhulu esiphezulu se-SEMI u-Ajit Manocha uthe, "Ukuthengiswa kwemishini yama-chip emhlabeni wonke kunamandla, kanti izinqubo ze-front-end kanye ne-back-end kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule unyaka wesithathu ulandelana, futhi ukuthengiswa kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-150 okokuqala ngo-2027. Ngemva kokubikezela kwethu kwaphakathi nonyaka okukhishwe ngoJulayi, siphakamise ukubikezela kwethu kokuthengiswa kwemishini yama-chip ngenxa yokutshalwa kwezimali okusebenzayo kunalokho obekulindelwe ekusekeleni isidingo se-AI."
I-SEMI ihlela ukuthengiswa kwemishini yokukhiqiza esezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni wonke (imishini yokukhiqiza i-wafer; i-WFE) ukuthi ikhule ngo-11.0% unyaka nonyaka iye ku-$115.7 billion ngo-2025, isuka esibikezelweni saphakathi nonyaka sama-$110.8 billion futhi idlule isibikezelo sango-2024 sama-$104 billion, okubeka irekhodi elisha. Ukubuyekezwa okuphezulu kwesibikezelo sokuthengisa se-WFE kukhombisa kakhulu ukwanda okungalindelekile kokutshalwa kwezimali kwe-DRAM kanye ne-HBM okuqhutshwa yisidingo sokubala se-AI, kanye negalelo elibalulekile elivela ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwamandla eShayina. Iqhutshwa yisidingo esikhulayo se-logic ethuthukisiwe kanye nenkumbulo, ukuthengiswa kwe-WFE emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngo-9.0% ngo-2026 futhi kuqhubeke nokwenyuka ngo-7.3% ngo-2027, kufinyelele ku-$135.2 billion.
I-SEMI ikhombisa ukuthi iShayina, iTaiwan, kanye neNingizimu Korea kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale zingabathengi bemishini ye-chip abathathu abaphezulu ngo-2027. Ngesikhathi sokubikezela (kuze kube ngu-2027), iShayina kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokutshala imali ezinqubweni ezivuthiwe kanye nama-node athile athuthukile ukuze igcine isikhundla sayo sokuhola; noma kunjalo, ukukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kancane ngemva kuka-2026, kanti ukuthengisa kwehla kancane kancane. ETaiwan, kulindeleke ukuthi kutshalwe imali enkulu ekwandiseni amandla okukhiqiza asezingeni eliphezulu kuze kube ngu-2025. ENingizimu Korea, ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kubuchwepheshe bememori obuthuthukisiwe, kufaka phakathi i-HBM, kuzosekela ukuthengiswa kwemishini.
Kwezinye izifunda, kulindeleke ukuthi utshalomali lukhule ngo-2026 nango-2027 ngenxa yezikhuthazo zikahulumeni, imizamo yokwakha izindawo, kanye nokwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza imikhiqizo ekhethekile.
I-Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) ikhiphe umbiko ngomhlaka-2 Disemba othi, ngokusho kwesibikezelo sakamuva esivela ku-World Semiconductor Trade System (WSTS), ukutshalwa kwezimali ezikhungweni zedatha yobuhlakani bokwenziwa kuzoba yimbangela eyinhloko, okuqhubekisela phambili ukukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo sememori, ama-GPU, kanye namanye ama-logic chips. Ngakho-ke, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kwande ngo-26.3% unyaka nonyaka ukuze kufinyelele ku-$975.46 billion ngo-2026, kusondela uphawu lwe-$1 trillion futhi kuphawule irekhodi elisha eliphakeme ngonyaka wesithathu olandelanayo.
Ukuthengiswa kwemishini ye-semiconductor yaseJapan kuyaqhubeka nokufinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu.
Ukuthengiswa kwemishini yokukhiqiza ama-semiconductor eJapane kusalokhu kuqinile, njengoba ukuthengiswa kuka-Okthoba 2025 kudlule ama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-400 ngenyanga ye-12 ilandelana, okubeka irekhodi elisha lesikhathi esifanayo. Kukhuliswe yilokhu, amasheya ezinkampani zemishini yama-chip zaseJapan akhuphuke namuhla.
Ngokusho kwe-Yahoo Finance, kusukela ngo-9:20 ekuseni ngesikhathi saseTaipei ngomhlaka-27, amasheya eTokyo Electron (TEL) akhuphuke ngo-2.60%, amasheya e-Advantest (umenzi wemishini yokuhlola) akhuphuke ngo-4.34%, kanti amasheya eKokosai (umenzi wemishini yokufaka ifilimu encane) akhuphuke ngo-5.16%.
Idatha ekhishwe yi-Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) ngomhlaka-26 ibonise ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwemishini ye-semiconductor yaseJapan (kufaka phakathi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, isilinganiso esinyakazayo sezinyanga ezi-3) kufinyelele kuma-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-413.876 ngo-Okthoba 2025, ukwanda okungu-7.3% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okuphawula inyanga yama-22 elandelanayo yokukhula. Ukuthengiswa kwanyanga zonke kudlule ama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-300 izinyanga ezingama-24 zilandelana kanye nama-yen ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-400 izinyanga eziyi-12 zilandelana, okubeka irekhodi elisha laleyo nyanga.
Ukuthengisa kwehle ngo-2.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule (Septhemba 2025), okubonisa ukwehla kwesibili ezinyangeni ezintathu.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2025, ukuthengiswa kwemishini ye-semiconductor eJapane kufinyelele ku-4.214 trillion yen, okuwukwenyuka okungu-17.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okudlule kakhulu irekhodi lomlando lama-3.586 trillion yen elibekwe ngo-2024.
Isabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke saseJapan semishini ye-semiconductor (ngokwemali engenayo yokuthengisa) sifinyelele ku-30%, okwenza kube yimakethe yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngemuva kwe-United States.
Ngo-Okthoba 31, iTokyo Telecom (TEL) yamemezela imiphumela yayo yezezimali, yathi ngenxa yokusebenza okungcono kunalokho obekulindelekile, inkampani inyuse umgomo wayo wemali engenayo ohlanganisiwe wonyaka wezimali ka-2025 (Ephreli 2025 kuya kuMashi 2026) kusuka ku-¥2.35 trillion ngoJulayi kuya ku-¥2.38 trillion. Umgomo wenzuzo yokusebenza ohlanganisiwe uphinde waphakanyiswa kusuka ku-¥570 billion kuya ku-¥586 billion, kanye nomgomo wenzuzo ehlanganisiwe kusuka ku-¥444 billion kuya ku-¥488 billion.
Ngomhlaka-3 kuJulayi, i-SEAJ ikhiphe umbiko wokubikezela okhombisa ukuthi ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla sama-GPU nama-HBM avela kumaseva e-AI, i-TSMC yenkampani esezingeni eliphezulu ye-semiconductor yaseTaiwan izoqala ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi kwama-chip e-2nm, okwenza kube nokutshalwa kwezimali okwandayo kubuchwepheshe be-2nm. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukutshalwa kwezimali kweNingizimu Korea ku-DRAM/HBM nakho kuyakhula. Ngakho-ke, isibikezelo sokuthengiswa kwemishini ye-semiconductor yaseJapan (esibhekisela ekuthengisweni kwezinkampani zaseJapan ngaphakathi nangaphandle) ngonyaka wezimali ka-2025 (Ephreli 2025 kuya kuMashi 2026) sibuyekezwe phezulu kusukela esilinganisweni sangaphambilini sama-yen ayizigidigidi ezingu-4.659 kuya kuma-yen ayizigidigidi ezingu-4.8634, okuwukukhuphuka okungu-2.0% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka wezimali ka-2024, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu ngonyaka wesibili olandelanayo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba-22-2025